PRESENT TENSE
Futures thinking. Present action
ORGANISATIONAL RESILIENCE | SCENARIO & CONTINGENCY PLANNING | REGULATORY CHANGE & COMPLIANCE | GEOPOLITICAL RISK & STRATEGIC FORESIGHT | NON-FINANCIAL & THIRD-PARTY RISK
From foresight to action. We turn geopolitical risk, scenarios, regulatory change and resilience into practical plans your organisation can act on now.
APRA Geopolitical ReadinessHow we approach APRA's geopolitical risk expectations, and the maturity spectrum used to assess readiness.View
Cross-Risk Transmission AnalysisHow we follow an external shock through PTB, a digital twin bank, from booked exposure through the wider chain.View
Risk Knowledge ArchitectureHow we hold definitions, data, policies and the reasoning behind a decision as a structured record.View
Geopolitical readiness | APRA-regulated entities
Get Ready for APRA's Geopolitical Risk Expectations
Start free and go as far as you need. Each step builds on the one before.
Prefilled for you: your kit, filled in. Illustrative preview.
Free Preview: Maturity Spectrum
Free
A preview of the Geopolitical Risk Maturity Spectrum for banks, insurers and super trustees. See the five levels and how the full Spectrum is set out.
Geopolitical Risk Maturity Spectrum
Self-assessment
Place your organisation on the line, area by area, with a grid for the six areas in APRA's letter and the full 13-question self-check with score bands.
Readiness
Kit
Do it yourself
What a small or mid-sized entity needs to reach Level 2 and start on Level 3: a plan of 35 actions, the full master checklist and every source, in one file that works offline.
Prefilled
for You
We fill the Kit
We fill the Kit for your organisation from public information and your answers to ten high-level questions. You do not need to send internal documents.
Level 3
and Above
By quote
We review your requirements and support implementation, drawing on geopolitical risk, risk frameworks and regulatory obligations.
Questions? Email [email protected]
General information, not advice.
Systemic Risk | Geopolitical Risk
Cross-Risk Transmission Analysis
External shocks land first on booked exposure, but most of the damage travels further, through channels across domains managed in silos. We ran a China–Taiwan escalation through PTB, a digital twin bank with about A$31bn of CET1, following the effects on borrowers, markets, funding and the non-financial drivers that travel with the shock. The organisation's own condition when the shock arrives matters, and exposure often sits a step or two beyond direct counterparties.
Read the full post on LinkedIn
Questions? Email [email protected]
How a strait disruption travels through PTB, a digital twin bank.
How the chain works, in one worked example.
Same shock, different banks: central and severe cases for four bank types.
The Exposure Chain Model: what it measures and how.
The risk lifecycle, with the Global Environment feeding in.
Risk Knowledge | Decision Context
Risk Knowledge Architecture
What Did We Mean When We Decided That?
When a regulator asks what “material” meant at the time of an assessment, most organisations end up finding the person who was in the room. As AI tools spread through risk and compliance, definitions that differ between divisions produce confident answers that disagree, and they do so faster than before. We set out four layers, Definitions, Data, Policies and processes, and Decision context, that build on data governance and keep the reasoning behind decisions as a structured record.
Read the full post on LinkedIn
Questions? Email [email protected]
The four layers of a risk knowledge architecture, from Definitions up to Decision context.
Four knowledge layers (left) and the maturity stages that sit alongside them (right).
Systemic Risk | Foresight
Integrated Systemic Risk Framework
A structured approach to systemic and cross-domain risk - integrating foresight, scenario planning, and complexity thinking
Scenario Planning | Risk Management
Scenario Planning Framework
Scenario planning tools to anticipate uncertainty, structure decisions, and build strategic agility
Global Risk Analysis | Geopolitical risk
Global Risk Analysis
Holistic analysis of systemic risk across global markets, geopolitics, supply chains, climate and technology
Scenario Planning | Contingency Plans
Middle East Scenarios
Middle East conflict scenario design and contingency planning
Scenario Planning | Risk Management
Climate Risk Scenario Framework
A structured approach to climate scenario planning, regulatory readiness, and impact assessment
Systems thinking |
Shifting the Risk Lens
Re-thinking foresight, scenario planning and decision-making through systems thinking
Climate Risk
Climate and Sustainability Risk Management
Integrating sustainability into risk governance, reporting and financial disclosures, and strategic execution
Action Plans | Contingency Planning
Risk Foresight and Pre-Emptive Action
Embedding action before uncertainty arrives. More coming shortly.
Regulatory ChangeWhat new and changing prudential standards mean for your plans, and what to do first.More coming shortly.
Organisational ResilienceCrisis management and contingency plans that hold up when something goes wrong.More coming shortly.
Geopolitical ContentShort notes on world events and what they mean for Australian organisations.More coming shortly.
About Us
We have more than two decades of experience across risk, strategy and systems thinking. We help organisations prepare for what comes next.Geopolitical shocks, market swings, supply chain disruption and regulatory shifts are linked. We work through them with you and turn them into clear, structured plans.What we do:- build and embed risk and scenario planning frameworks
- develop contingency and crisis management plans
- measure impact, financial and non-financial
- strengthen compliance and organisational resilienceOur focus stays the same: from foresight to follow-through.
Lloyd Blankfein, former CEO of Goldman Sachs:“What we really aspire to is less to foresee the future and more to be a great contingency planner.” “I don’t think I could see four inches into the future.”